A steel industry report released by Indian credit rating agency Crisil on January 2 indicated that India's domestic steel industry, which has experienced a multi-year surge in demand, expects the trend to continue in the fiscal year 2023-24, but then in the fiscal year 2024-25 will slow down.
The Indian steel industry has achieved double-digit growth for the past three consecutive years, with a growth rate of 11% to 13%, but it will slow down to 3% to 5% in the 2024-25 fiscal year.
The growth slowdown in the long products market will be particularly sharp ahead of the 2024 Indian elections. Around 12-13 million tons of new capacity will come on stream in the second half of 2024-25, bringing production in line with demand and reducing import dependence.
Additionally, underlying improvement in demand from China after the Chinese New Year holiday and expected production cuts will further reduce India's imports.